The Rockets Are Not Serious Contenders – And The Film Shows Why

Houston's Illusion of Progress

Look, the Rockets beat the Lakers by 16 points a few nights ago, a 135-119 shellacking where Houston shot 57% from the field and looked like an offensive juggernaut. Dillon Brooks went for 17 points, Fred VanVleet dropped 25 with 11 assists, and Alperen Sengun put up a cool 31 points and 12 boards. On paper, it was a statement win, a moment that had some folks in Houston whispering about a playoff push. But I’m here to tell you, don’t buy the hype. The film, as always, tells a much different story.

Here's the thing: that Lakers team was playing without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Let's not mince words here; those are two of the NBA’s top 10 players, maybe top 5 when healthy. You take away that kind of star power, especially against a young, energetic team like the Rockets, and you're asking for trouble. It’s like trying to win a chess match with your queen and rook off the board.

The Sengun Problem (And Promise)

Sengun's individual performance was undeniably impressive. The guy’s post-game is blossoming, he's got vision, and he's showing flashes of a truly elite offensive big. His 31 points against the Lakers included some beautiful touch shots and smart reads. But if you watch the tape, there’s still a huge defensive asterisk next to his name. He often struggles in pick-and-roll coverage, getting caught between defending the ball handler and recovering to his own man. The Lakers, even without their stars, were able to exploit this at times, even if their finishing wasn't always there.

And that’s the rub with the Rockets: for all their flashes of brilliance, particularly from Sengun and VanVleet, they lack the consistent two-way impact needed to truly contend. Jalen Green scored 26 points, but his shot selection can still be erratic, and his defensive engagement comes and goes. This isn't a knock on his potential; it’s a critique of where he is right now, especially when compared to the top-tier wings in the Western Conference.

The Ime Udoka Effect – A Work in Progress

Ime Udoka has done a commendable job instilling a defensive mindset in this team. They play harder, they're more organized, and they’ve certainly improved their transition defense. The Rockets are currently 9th in defensive rating, a massive leap from last season's 29th-place finish. That's real, tangible progress. But good defense only gets you so far when your offensive sets occasionally devolve into hero ball, or when the spacing isn't quite right. They still rank 24th in offensive rating, averaging 111.4 points per 100 possessions. That disparity between their defensive improvement and offensive stagnation is telling.

Real talk: The Lakers win was a nice morale boost for a young team. It showed what they can be on a good night, especially against a depleted opponent. But a single game against an undermanned squad doesn’t suddenly turn a rebuilding project into a playoff lock. They are still too prone to offensive droughts, too reliant on individual brilliance rather than cohesive team play, and their defensive lapses, while fewer, are still present in critical moments.

I’m calling it now: The Rockets will finish outside the Play-In Tournament. They're heading in the right direction, but they're still a season or two away from being a serious threat in the West.